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Tuesday
April 5, 2005

Tipping the
balance
By TAN CHENG LI

Man is living on borrowed time. A study examining the planet’s
life support systems has found that two-thirds of the services
provided by nature to mankind has been damaged by human pressure.
And the harmful effects of the degradation will get worse in the
next 50 years.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) Synthesis Report,
conducted by 1,360 experts from 95 countries, says growing demand
for food, freshwater, energy and materials has strained the complex
systems of plants, animals and biological processes that make the
planet habitable.

“The benefits reaped from our engineering of the planet have been
achieved by running down our natural capital assets,” says the
45-member MA board of directors in a statement issued with the
release of the report last Wednesday.

The report, first of seven to be published under the MA which
started in 2001, states that 15 of 24 ecosystem services are on the
verge of collapse. They include the provision of water, food, fibre,
genetic resources and biochemicals and the purification of air,
water, climate and waste.

A quarter of Earth’s land is now cultivated
to feed its six billion human
inhabitants.

Only four ecosystem
services have been enhanced in the past 50 years: increases in crop,
livestock and aquaculture production, and increased carbon
sequestration for global climate regulation.

“At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning. Human
activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth
that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future
generations can no longer be taken for granted,” says the MA
board.

It warns that nature’s strained machinery will spur abrupt
changes which will have dire consequences for human well-being, such
as the emergence of new diseases, declining water quality, creation
of “dead zones” along the coasts, the collapse of fisheries, and
shifts in regional climate.

Climate change, for instance, can tip natural systems quickly
over the edge. Some models suggest that local warming could turn the
Amazon within a few decades from lush forest to dry savannah.

Deforestation is another cause of
degradation of Earth’s natural
machinery.

“Once such trigger points
are reached, it can be difficult or impossible for natural systems
to return to their former state. More than a decade after the sudden
collapse of cod stocks on the Grand Banks off Canada, for example,
there are few signs of the fish returning even though the fishery
has closed,” says the MA board.

It also says that humans are lowering the resilience of natural
systems by reducing the variety of species and placing them under
unprecedented pressures. There are signs that damage to natural
systems has reduced the number of insects and birds available to
carry the pollen needed for flowering plants to reproduce, with
serious implications for many crops.

The protection provided to people by natural systems against
extreme events is in decline too. For instance, severe floods in
recent years are not just due to heavier rainfall, but also through
landscape changes such as deforestation and the draining of marshes.

“Investing in healthier natural assets could therefore be seen as
a form of prudent insurance against abrupt changes and the risk to
human well-being that they pose.”

The four-year assessment was designed by a partnership of United
Nations agencies, international scientific organisations and
development agencies. It is funded by the Global Environment
Facility, the UN Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation
and The World Bank.

The MA report is available at http://www.maweb.org/

Changes in Earth’s natural machinery

WATER withdrawals from rivers and lakes have doubled in the last
40 years. Man now uses between 40% and 50% of all available
freshwater running off the land.

Flow from rivers has reduced dramatically. Dams hold three to
six times more water than free-flowing rivers. For parts of the
year, the Yellow River in China, the Nile in Africa and the Colorado
in North America dry up before they reach the ocean.

More land was converted to farms in the last 60 years than in
the 18th and 19th centuries combined. A quarter of Earth’s land
surface is now cultivated.

One-third of all mangroves was lost over the past 20 years. And
20% of the world’s coral reefs have been destroyed and another 20%
badly degraded or destroyed.

Over half of all synthetic nitrogen fertiliser on earth was
applied in the past 20 years. The flow of nitrogen to the oceans has
doubled since 1860. The use of phosphorus fertilisers and the rate
of phosphorus accumulation in agricultural soils grew three-fold
between 1960 and 1990. In many places this has led to excess growth
of plants such as algae that in turn deprive the water of oxygen and
kill other forms of aquatic life.

One-quarter of marine fish stocks is over-harvested. In some
areas, the catch is one-tenth of that before industrial fishing.
Inland fisheries have also declined due to overfishing, changes to
habitats and withdrawal of freshwater.

An estimated 12% of bird species, 25% of mammals and more than
30% of all amphibians are threatened with extinction within the next
century.

Some native wildlife species are threatened by invaders. The
Baltic Sea is now home to 100 creatures from other parts of the
world and the Great Lakes, 170 species. Invasive species can make
dramatic changes: the arrival of the American comb jellyfish in the
Black Sea led to the destruction of 26 commercially important stocks
of fish.

What can we do about it?

Some key steps available to reduce the degradation of ecosystem
services:

All ecosystem services must cease to be perceived as free and
limitless. Their full value must be taken into account.

Local communities are far more likely to act in ways that
conserve natural resources if they are given ownership, share the
benefits and are involved in decisions.

Natural assets will be better protected if their importance is
recognised in the central decision-making of governments or
businesses, rather than leaving policies associated with ecosystems
to relatively weak environment departments.

Remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries and energy that cause
harm to people and the environment.

Expand protected areas, particularly in marine systems, and
restore degraded ecosystems.

Provide public education on why and how to reduce consumption of
threatened ecosystem services.

Invest in “green” technologies which increase food production
with minimal harmful trade-offs, and those which increase energy
efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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